Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 14.148905 16.153078 18.301738 20.772151 23.529405 26.507400 29.962386
2025-09-14 11.414576 14.197064 17.401842 21.347305 26.053908 31.467627 38.143697
2025-09-21 9.671908 12.724802 16.408619 21.146495 27.040043 34.088686 43.111172
2025-09-28 8.002340 11.099124 15.001784 20.227505 26.980571 35.345995 46.416085
2025-10-05 7.318754 10.602658 14.890980 20.823703 28.728541 38.797907 52.476550
2025-10-12 6.692934 10.096586 14.689850 21.237419 30.207214 41.924092 58.218181
2025-10-19 5.985890 9.391296 14.134875 21.092808 30.879074 43.968500 62.574458
2025-10-26 5.364560 8.738565 13.582326 20.881618 31.404439 45.792301 66.662514
2025-11-02 4.896200 8.261207 13.229764 20.906409 32.226812 48.019231 71.351823
2025-11-09 4.525751 7.894395 13.001594 21.078643 33.242543 50.528990 76.503499
2025-11-16 4.138474 7.461655 12.633531 21.002586 33.867769 52.482888 80.913870
2025-11-23 3.770673 7.024150 12.219399 20.816494 34.298075 54.146674 84.940045
2025-11-30 3.494102 6.720486 12.003220 20.936602 35.216764 56.593583 90.256828
2025-12-07 3.336062 6.606706 12.085320 21.533169 36.898215 60.243603 97.499069
2025-12-14 3.045134 6.227920 11.694350 21.324735 37.282165 61.919959 101.804245
2025-12-21 2.662713 5.644013 10.907766 20.401021 36.455232 61.677964 103.144928
2025-12-28 2.563339 5.580986 11.019844 21.000935 38.135914 65.403119 110.740700
2026-01-04 2.443206 5.466108 11.029092 21.417993 39.523543 68.704855 117.772849
2026-01-11 2.252718 5.193662 10.731201 21.272212 39.946304 70.462728 122.401844
2026-01-18 2.070565 4.919977 10.409444 21.059484 40.234984 72.000197 126.712233
2026-01-25 1.934106 4.727829 10.226451 21.084448 40.929704 74.219264 132.187094
2026-02-01 1.826060 4.585738 10.128641 21.257968 41.887389 76.900491 138.494014
2026-02-08 1.698389 4.388073 9.906585 21.181343 42.388212 78.821008 143.589718